• About us
  • Advertise With Us
  • Become a Contributor
  • Guest Posting Service
  • Privacy Policy
  • Submit Press Release
  • Terms & Conditions
  • Contact
Cryptowall Street News
  • Home
  • Trending Coins
    • Cardano
    • Ethereum
    • Coinbase
    • Polkadot
    • Metaverse
    • BNB Chain
    • DeFi
    • Polkadot
    • Solana
  • Market
    • Bitcoin
    • Blockchain
    • Analysis
    • Guide
  • Top List
    • Top 10 cryptocurrencies
    • Top 50 Cryptocurrency
    • Top 100 Cryptocurrencies
    • Top 200 Cryptocurrency
    • Top 250 Cryptocurrencies
  • Binance
  • Coinbase
  • Crypto
    • Crypto Exchange
  • Finance
  • Litecoin
  • Ripple
  • Tether
No Result
View All Result
  • Home
  • Trending Coins
    • Cardano
    • Ethereum
    • Coinbase
    • Polkadot
    • Metaverse
    • BNB Chain
    • DeFi
    • Polkadot
    • Solana
  • Market
    • Bitcoin
    • Blockchain
    • Analysis
    • Guide
  • Top List
    • Top 10 cryptocurrencies
    • Top 50 Cryptocurrency
    • Top 100 Cryptocurrencies
    • Top 200 Cryptocurrency
    • Top 250 Cryptocurrencies
  • Binance
  • Coinbase
  • Crypto
    • Crypto Exchange
  • Finance
  • Litecoin
  • Ripple
  • Tether
No Result
View All Result
Latest News and Updates on Cryptocurrency
No Result
View All Result
Home Market

The Base, Bull And Bear Cases For Bitcoin Returns In 2022

admin by admin
August 16, 2022
in Market
0 0
0
The Base, Bull And Bear Cases For Bitcoin Returns In 2022
0
SHARES
0
VIEWS
Share on FacebookShare on Twitter

Analyzing Federal Reserve policy decisions in addition to data from the purchasing managers’ index can give us three scenarios for the bitcoin price.

Darius Dale is the Founder and CEO of 42 Macro, an investment research firm that aims to disrupt the financial services industry by democratizing institutional-grade macro risk management processes.

The distribution of probable economic outcomes — and by extension, financial market outcomes — is as flat and wide as it has been in recent years. 42 Macro’s base-case scenario of deflation calls for an expected return of -10% annualized for bitcoin. Our bull case scenario of deflation plus policy rate decreases calls for an expected return of +29% annualized for bitcoin. Our bear case deflation plus quantitative tightening calls for an expected return of -37% annualized for bitcoin. Critically, all three scenarios are equally probable over the next three to six months. If we sounded highly convinced issuing sell warnings at every lower high in bitcoin’s price from early-December through July, we should sound equally unconvinced today.

U.S. and global growth continue to slow, albeit at a more modest pace than in recent quarters. The Fed and other central banks continue to procyclically tighten monetary policy through year end: soft-ish landing.

Bayesian spotlight: The slowdown in the headline ISM Manufacturing to the lowest level since June 2020 was an afterthought relative to the decline in the “new orders less inventories” spread falling to -9. This is the lowest level since December 2008. There have only been eight such instances where the spread troughed at current or worse levels. The median trough ISM Manufacturing reading in such instances is 38.6, which is typically reached one month later on a median basis. The median trough ISM Manufacturing reading when the spread troughs +/- 1 point from its current level of -9 is 42.5, which is typically reached three months later on a median basis (n=4). All told, it would be wise for investors to stress test their portfolio holdings for, at best, a low-40s ISM Manufacturing statistic this fall.

U.S. inflation momentum continues to decline sharply, likely causing the Fed to pause after a final rate hike in September. The improvement in real incomes pulls forward the positive inflection in growth: soft landing.

Bayesian spotlight: The July consumer price index (CPI) release represented the river card in a trifecta of data points: July ISM Services PMI, July Jobs Report, July CPI, that all lend credence to the soft-landing view. While the downside surprises on both headline CPI (0.0% month-over month versus 0.2% estimate) and core CPI (0.3% month-over-month versus 0.5% estimate) were to be celebrated, the brunt of the good news came via the sharp slowdowns in median CPI (-250 basis points to 6.3% month-over-month annualized) and sticky CPI (-270 basis points to 5.4% month-over-month annualized) because these indicators track core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) — the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge — better than most other CPI time series. If the deceleration in these leading indicators continues at the same pace and if historical correlations persist, we could be looking at month-over-month annualized rates of core PCE of roughly 2% in the August or September data. Those are obviously two very big ifs, especially considering we are devoid of historical examples of this kind of non-recessionary inflation dynamism to adequately train a model on. At any rate, the possibility the Fed could be heading into its November 2 meeting with “clear and confirming evidence” that inflation is likely to trend back towards its 2% target in a reasonable timeframe is shocking to type, but type it we must, considering August PCE is released on Sept. 30 and September PCE is released on Oct. 23.

The nascent deceleration in inflation momentum stalls out at levels inconsistent with the Fed’s price stability mandate, causing the Fed to tighten well into 2023: hard landing.

This is a guest post by Darius Dale. Opinions expressed are entirely their own and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc. or Bitcoin Magazine.

source

Tags: Crypto WorldCryptocurrency NewsLatest Crypto NewsTop Cryptocurrency News
admin

admin

  • Trending
  • Comments
  • Latest
Beldex and Geometry Labs enter privacy-enhancing partnership

Beldex and Geometry Labs enter privacy-enhancing partnership

September 13, 2022
Here's When the Ethereum Proof-of-Work Fork Will Take Place

Here’s When the Ethereum Proof-of-Work Fork Will Take Place

September 13, 2022
Horizen Labs' ApeCoin staking hype sets $APE on a bullish trajectory

Horizen Labs’ ApeCoin staking hype sets $APE on a bullish trajectory

September 13, 2022
Bitcoin breaks to $20K as bulls target higher mothly close

Bitcoin breaks to $20K as bulls target higher mothly close

October 9, 2022
Only1 review: redefining social media experience using NFTs

Only1 review: redefining social media experience using NFTs

0
Et voici EIP-1559 !

Et voici EIP-1559 !

0
Crypto.com is now registered as a virtual asset service provider in the Cayman Islands

Crypto.com is now registered as a virtual asset service provider in the Cayman Islands

0
Crypto has provided Ukraine a way to ‘fight back’, digital transformation minister says

Crypto has provided Ukraine a way to ‘fight back’, digital transformation minister says

0
JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon Calls Bitcoin 'Hyped-up Fraud' — Expects Satoshi Nakamoto to Increase BTC Supply Cap – Featured Bitcoin News

JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon Calls Bitcoin ‘Hyped-up Fraud’ — Expects Satoshi Nakamoto to Increase BTC Supply Cap – Featured Bitcoin News

January 31, 2023
Nothing Outlaws Crypto in India if Legal Procedures Are Followed, Says Government Official – Regulation Bitcoin News

Nothing Outlaws Crypto in India if Legal Procedures Are Followed, Says Government Official – Regulation Bitcoin News

January 30, 2023
Ransomware Revenue Drops as Victims Pay Less Often, Chainalysis Reports – Security Bitcoin News

Ransomware Revenue Drops as Victims Pay Less Often, Chainalysis Reports – Security Bitcoin News

January 29, 2023
Davos 2023: CBDCs Are the Future of Central Bank Money but They Are Still Not Ready – Fintech Bitcoin News

Davos 2023: CBDCs Are the Future of Central Bank Money but They Are Still Not Ready – Fintech Bitcoin News

January 27, 2023

POPULAR NEWS

    Recommended

    JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon Calls Bitcoin 'Hyped-up Fraud' — Expects Satoshi Nakamoto to Increase BTC Supply Cap – Featured Bitcoin News

    JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon Calls Bitcoin ‘Hyped-up Fraud’ — Expects Satoshi Nakamoto to Increase BTC Supply Cap – Featured Bitcoin News

    January 31, 2023
    Nothing Outlaws Crypto in India if Legal Procedures Are Followed, Says Government Official – Regulation Bitcoin News

    Nothing Outlaws Crypto in India if Legal Procedures Are Followed, Says Government Official – Regulation Bitcoin News

    January 30, 2023
    Ransomware Revenue Drops as Victims Pay Less Often, Chainalysis Reports – Security Bitcoin News

    Ransomware Revenue Drops as Victims Pay Less Often, Chainalysis Reports – Security Bitcoin News

    January 29, 2023
    Davos 2023: CBDCs Are the Future of Central Bank Money but They Are Still Not Ready – Fintech Bitcoin News

    Davos 2023: CBDCs Are the Future of Central Bank Money but They Are Still Not Ready – Fintech Bitcoin News

    January 27, 2023

    About Us

    Get the latest news on Cryptocurrency and stay up-to-date ... Cryptocurrency prices today

    Categories

    • Analysis
    • Binance
    • Bitcoin
    • Blockchain
    • BNB Chain
    • Cardano
    • Coinbase
    • Crypto
    • DeFi
    • Ethereum
    • Finance
    • Guide
    • Market
    • Metaverse
    • Polkadot
    • Solana
    • Tether

    Tags

    BNB Chain Business Wire Pricing Cardano Cardano Crypto Crypto Cryptocurrency News Crypto Guest Posting Crypto News Crypto news distribution network Crypto news platform Crypto news site Crypto World DeFi Crypto Ethereum Ethereum Crypto Ethereum Digital Marketing agency Ethereum Marketing Agency Ethereum Marketing Experts Ethereum Online Marketing Agency Latest Crypto News Marketwired Pricing Metaverse Polkadot Polkadot Digital Marketing firm Polkadot Marketing Experts PRNewswire Cost PRNewswire Pricing PRWeb Pricing Solana Solana Crypto Solana Digital Marketing Specialists Solana Marketing Experts3 Solana Online Marketing Agency Today Crypto Update Top Cryptocurrency News video news release video press release video press release service
    • About us
    • Advertise With Us
    • Become a Contributor
    • Contact
    • Guest Posting Service
    • Home 4
    • List Of Top All Cryptocurrencies In The World (2022 Updated)
    • Privacy Policy
    • Submit Press Release
    • Terms & Conditions
    • Top 10 cryptocurrencies in the world | Crypto Prices Today LIVE
    • Top 100 Cryptocurrencies (Real-Time Prices) Market Cap
    • Top 200 Cryptocurrency List Price – Charts
    • Top 50 Cryptocurrency Prices – Coin Market Cap and Price Charts

    © 2022 cryptowallstreetnews.

    No Result
    View All Result
    • Home
    • Trending Coins
      • Cardano
      • Ethereum
      • Coinbase
      • Polkadot
      • Metaverse
      • BNB Chain
      • DeFi
      • Polkadot
      • Solana
    • Market
      • Bitcoin
      • Blockchain
      • Analysis
      • Guide
    • Top List
      • Top 10 cryptocurrencies
      • Top 50 Cryptocurrency
      • Top 100 Cryptocurrencies
      • Top 200 Cryptocurrency
      • Top 250 Cryptocurrencies
    • Binance
    • Coinbase
    • Crypto
      • Crypto Exchange
    • Finance
    • Litecoin
    • Ripple
    • Tether

    © 2022 cryptowallstreetnews.

    Welcome Back!

    Login to your account below

    Forgotten Password?

    Retrieve your password

    Please enter your username or email address to reset your password.

    Log In
    • bitcoinBitcoin(BTC)$23,122.001.07%
    • ethereumEthereum(ETH)$1,587.860.80%
    • USDEXUSDEX(USDEX)$1.08-0.31%
    • tetherTether(USDT)$1.00-0.03%
    • usd-coinUSD Coin(USDC)$1.00-0.03%
    • binancecoinBNB(BNB)$312.570.61%
    • rippleXRP(XRP)$0.4035772.53%
    • Binance USDBinance USD(BUSD)$1.00-0.14%
    • cardanoCardano(ADA)$0.3885463.92%
    • dogecoinDogecoin(DOGE)$0.0954551.74%