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Ethereum 合併讓我想起了疫情封鎖

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August 16, 2022
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Ethereum 合併讓我想起了疫情封鎖
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呃。對於 Ethereum 投資者來說,這幾週過得並不好,因為 DeFi 之王已經跌破 1700 美元,現在比元旦開盤價 3722 美元低了 55%。

Vitalik 的粉絲更加擔心的是,Bitcoin 在過去一個月左右的表現不佳。儘管整個市場在宏觀情緒和 Terra 馬戲團的影響下暴跌,但過去幾天 Bitcoin 至少出現了小幅反彈。然而, Ethereum 卻幾乎一直在下跌。

下圖對比了 Ethereum 和 Bitcoin 的表現。由於當時牛市肆虐,ETH 利用其較高的波動性和較低的市值,在 2020 年和 2021 年的表現均遠超 BTC。然而,隨著今年市場的轉變,我們看到 BTC 重新確立了其在所有加密貨幣領域的主導地位,就像歷史上回調時期的情況一樣。

深入挖掘基本面,我們會發現引發 ETH 下跌的因素並不僅僅是整個市場的下跌。那便是傳說中的合併,在加密貨幣愛好者的記憶中,它一直被承諾、推遲以及重新承諾。在這一點上,合併在我腦海中引發了關於愛爾蘭老家由於疫情被封鎖的創傷性記憶。

我們好像總共進行了五次封鎖,時間從三周到六個月不等。每一次的封鎖都被承諾說這是最後一次,但卻又是一次又一次地到來,更加嚴重且更加快速。晚上 8 點的宵禁、房子周圍 2 公里的活動範圍、運動配額等等,這是一場持續不斷的艱苦演習,因為我們的政府一再達不到自己的目標,也未能相應地制定計劃。

儘管 ETH 合併似乎仍定於 8 月,但上週發生的事件提醒了人們這個日期並非板上釘釘,因為 Beacon Chain 在上週進行七個區塊重組時遇到了絆腳石。確切地說,從 3,887,075 到 3,887,081 的七個區塊在 UTC 時間上午 08:55:23 到 08:56:35 之間從 Beacon Chain 中被剔除了。

將這句話翻譯成直白的語言就是,重組是當一個作為主鏈的一部分的區塊,由於被競爭區塊擊敗而被淘汰的事件。通常,這可以通過惡意攻擊或漏洞發生。

這是一個小問題,從長遠來看並沒有什麼可擔心的。然而,它肯定證明了預定在 8 月的時間表是多麼地脆弱。儘管許多人早就放棄了預測這種難以捉摸的改革時機,但加密貨幣社區肯定低估了該項目的艱巨性和規模。

Ethereum 最近的一次下跌——上周大幅波動,而 Bitcoin 也是舉步維艱——很可能是由於對路線圖的這種額外懷疑。考慮到 8 月份升級的消息已經被市场消化 ,而且現在投資者非常謹慎,市場對消息超級敏感,這樣的情況下總是會引發拋售。

由於整個市場的情緒比全球金融危機後的任何時候都更糟,而且加密貨幣在 Terra 內爆後面臨各種難題,該領域需要 Ethereum 履行承諾,通過實現成功合併來渡過難關。

我相信我們仍在朝著 8 月合併的這個方向前進著——今天早些時候,Ropsten 測試網合併帶來了一些好消息,這是應用到主網之前的決定性事件之一。但話又說回來,我之前也相信封鎖只會持續三週,但在過去的兩年裡,我的很多時間都在臥室裡度過了,甚至我都忘記了天空是什麼樣子。

一起來祈禱我不會在這裡重蹈覆轍吧。

The post Ethereum 合併讓我想起了疫情封鎖 appeared first on CoinJournal.

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